Am I drinking the Kool-Aid?

"Highlander-Datsuns are Forever" (jamesbowland) 06/14/2019 at 10:10 • Filed to: 737 Max

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I have absolutely no more fear flying in a new 737 max vs any other commercial airplane. It might help that one of my best friends is a Captain at a major airline and has flown the new 737 max numerous times without issue and has related that for the most part US based airlines are better at training and have more experienced pilots who could have conceivably avoided the two accidents that have occurred .

There is still no excuse in my opinion for Boeing to put such an important passive safety system on a plane and not properly inform the buyers and fliers of it’s differences to what they typically fly .

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ttyymmnn > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/14/2019 at 10:18

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I would fly a Max today. I might feel better doing so in Europe or the US, though. As for the flying public, I would wager that about 98% of the people who fly regularly don’t know or care what type of a/c they are flying on. As for the MAX, it looks like it will be December before they’re back in the air , so schedules for some airlines will continue to have challenges.

The MAX fiasco has uncovered some serious issues in Boeing and the FAA, and the most damning is probably a culture of complacency and pressure to get planes in the air. It also seems that nobody at Boeing is talking to each other. This will all get straightened out, and the MAX will be a safer plane for it. 

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > ttyymmnn 06/14/2019 at 10:23

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My friend thought back in early May that they would be flying the Max by the end of the summer. It’s really hurting SWA and American. His comment on the Ethopian crash is that the pilots didn’t reduce power and re-trim the plane they just kept it at take-off power... and they speculated that it was supersonic when it hit the ground... 

facw > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/14/2019 at 10:24

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Good article: Boeing Built Deadly Assumptions Into 737 Max, Blind to a Late Design Change

I’m still staggered that they thought it was ok to only reference one of the two AoA sensors on the plane. R edundancy is key in aviation, having a single point of failure is so bizarre. I guess referencing the above article, they thought that this system would basically never engage, so it didn’t matter, but then didn’t rethink that when they expanded the system’s scope. But still the fact that Boeing sells (as an option) a “ disagree light” to indicate when the sensors don’t have the same reading, but thought that it was ok to use one of them for flight control actions while in that state is just totally strange. Frankly I’d want a third sanity check since it seems quite possible that icing conditions on one side of the plane could be just as present on the other, messing up the readings from both.

That said, I suspect you are right that they would be safe to fly. US pilots are likely to be better trained, and US planes are likely to be better maintained, and at this point there’s no way any 737 MAX pilot is going top take the controls without knowing how to quickly disable this system should the plane do something unexpected. Having said that , given that Boeing left this stuff out of their manual and pilot training, there’s no chance the Lion Air pilots could have done anything (though they were let down by their maintenance people), a US crew likely would have been just as fucked had the AoA sensor used by the program failed on a Southwest or American flight.

ranwhenparked > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/14/2019 at 10:26

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No, you’re not. The problem is significant , but it’s not horrifying. The fundamental design of the plane has been proven sound and safe over 52 years and thousands of deliveries, and all the evidence so far seems to suggest that the issues with the Max are solvable through a combination of software and training.

Censored > ttyymmnn 06/14/2019 at 10:28

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What is this, a non knee jerk rational take. Thanks, I needed that.

WilliamsSW > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/14/2019 at 10:33

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Once they’re recertified, I’ll fly then without worrying at all.

Regarding the original configuration, I feel like those who say “ it’s fine because training” are as wrong as those who say “ it’s a death trap”. The truth is somewhere in between - and a malfunction   at low altitudes ( without enough system redundancy) is a   very dangerous situation. So yeah, I would avoid one that wasn’t fixed.

Mercedes Streeter > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/14/2019 at 10:35

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IIRC, investigators did find that the aircraft was at TOGA thrust from takeoff to impact. So even though they were eventually able to regain control, they were far too fast and low to recover.

ttyymmnn > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/14/2019 at 10:35

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By keeping the plane at takeoff speed it made it almost physically impossible to trim the plane manually. I can only think that they were trying to gain altitude to give them some room to deal with the problem. 

ttyymmnn > facw 06/14/2019 at 10:40

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US pilots are likely to be better trained, and US planes are likely to be better maintained,

I would certainly add Europe to this list.

That NYT article is good. I think it does a good job of showing the dysfunction inside Boeing as the MAX moved towards entry into service. But like you, I am stunned that they never did any simulations or even considered what would happen if something broke. 

Jetstreamer > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/14/2019 at 10:44

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The “better training and more experienced pilots” is a bit of a symptom of the “it will never happen to me” syndrome though.

US 737 MAX anonymous safety reports showing crews taking a plane in the air that they were not comfortable with, having barely any training on the new avionics etc. Shows a bit of poor decision making if you still take it up in the air. Reports showing crew n ot understanding the automation etc.

I’m not saying they are worse, more saying it could happen to literally any crew and your Captain friend should keep that in mind. Confidence is good, arrogance is not. By saying such things he is blaming the pilots for not salvaging a situation, while Boeing is the one putting pilots in that situation. Those pilots were just as legally certified to fly that plane as your Captain friend, so he should probably refrain from such remarks unless he knew them personally.

And I am saying that as a fellow airline captain.

facw > ttyymmnn 06/14/2019 at 10:50

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Yep, it’s easy to imagine Western European pilots and maintenance being better than the US, I was just talking about the average case.

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > Jetstreamer 06/14/2019 at 10:56

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This is a great perspective, very much an armchair quarterback situation. It’s easy to know what to do in a given situation when you’ve had 3 months to study it.

All of this discussion with my friend was AFTER the accidents and during their annual cert ification training, during which they studied both accidents in great detail . I would assume there is a heavy dose of “Hindsight is 20/20" going on here. I didn’t feel like he was digging on the Ethiopian pilots other than saying this is basically the only thing they could have done to land the plane safely and how many pilots would have thought up that exact solution in that little amount of time under that level of stress?

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > ranwhenparked 06/14/2019 at 10:59

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Ironically I never fly American or SWA, exclusively Alaska and Delta due to my location .

For Sweden > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/14/2019 at 11:04

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I would fly the Max, but not because of Western pilot training.

Designers need to make these planes easy to fly. I don’t want to rely on training to make the plane safe in an emergency situation.

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > For Sweden 06/14/2019 at 11:24

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Northwestern Pilot training?

ttyymmnn > facw 06/14/2019 at 11:27

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Not necessarily better, just  on par.

Full of the sound of the Gran Fury, signifying nothing. > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/14/2019 at 11:37

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I wouldn’t have a problem flying on thi s aircraft either. It’s rather unfortunate that it took two crashes and 300+ lives lost, but I suspect that the MAX program will be better off for it  in the long run. Since it has also highlighted issues with the FAA essentially ceding their job to Boeing, this should mean more scrutiny in future aircraft, if the FAA isn’t completely gutted and turned into a useless shell of its former self by the time an aircraft needs to be certified...

Eury - AFRICA TWIN!!!!!!! > For Sweden 06/14/2019 at 11:48

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What? Seriously? What do you think makes a plane safe in any situation if not pilot training? When you get on my plane, the designers aren’t the reason you are going to be able to safely get to your destination. My years of training, thousands of hours of experience, hundreds of simulated emergencies in simulators, and good judgement is what gets you there safely. No matter how easy or hard a plane is to fly, it’s the people up front that determines your safety. 

For Sweden > Eury - AFRICA TWIN!!!!!!! 06/14/2019 at 11:53

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Redundancy, informative alerts, alarms, stick shakers, etc.

I’ve read enough CVR transcripts of exceptionally- trained pilots turning off the wrong engine, or not noticing the blaring “TERRAIN TERRAIN PULL UP PULL UP” alarms to not want to rely on just pilot training to save the airplane.

Have you heard the saying, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth?” Everyone is well trained until the airplane is falling out of the sky for unknown reasons.

Eury - AFRICA TWIN!!!!!!! > For Sweden 06/14/2019 at 12:04

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How often do you think emergencies happen or things fail? A whole lot more often than an event that generates a CVR transcript for you to read. Every day engines fail, hydraulic pressure is lost, pressurization fails, etc etc etc. Y ou don’t read about it specifically because well trained pilots handled the situation. These things happen every day.

I agree that planes should be well designed with all the features you mentioned, and those are all in place on every airliner in the sky today. I just disagree with the implication that well trained pilots aren’t required in an emergency situation. Training is often what keeps things from even developing to that point, although obviously not always. 

For Sweden > Eury - AFRICA TWIN!!!!!!! 06/14/2019 at 12:11

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Oft en enough. Though I look at the numbers more than most people, as I am paid to do just that.

Pilots are good.  Well trained pilots are better.  I’m not going to trust my life on pilot training as a last line of defense against emergencies.  

Ash78, voting early and often > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/14/2019 at 12:23

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My Southwest captain neighbor says they all trained for this before the accident, but again — you never know how you’ll react until it happens.

My dad (71) and a couple of his friends were both lamenting that “runaway trim scenarios” have basically dropped out of simulator training in recent years (both for small and large craft). It used to be a standard thing you would prepare for, especially on takeoff. That’s similar to the condition that warranted the creation of MCAS to begin with.

Ash78, voting early and often > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/14/2019 at 12:27

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NWA: Straight Outta Competence!

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > Ash78, voting early and often 06/14/2019 at 12:35

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Interesting that we had such similar conversations with pilots who go to the same ground school...

wafflesnfalafel > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/15/2019 at 21:34

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P ut me in a nice 757 and I’ll be happy... I’m more just pissed off that their “work around” doesn’t seem to  have any redundancy... At this point, if a 737max just twitches the wrong way the first thing the pilot will do will smash that MCAS off button...